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| Implications of climatic change to choice of plants and garden design | |
| Over the next 40 years, summer temperatures in the South-East of England are expected to be 1.5° to 3°C warmer than they are now. Winter weather will be warmer and summers will be drier. Overall rainfall will be cut by a third. Shorter winters are being followed by earlier spring weather with bulbs flowering up to two weeks earlier and the earlier vegetation of deciduous tree species. Such changes highlight the continuing growth potential in the UK market for Mediterranean plants. Guy Barter of the Royal Horticultural Society expects that lawns and herbaceous borders are going to be difficult to maintain, especially in areas of water shortages. Herbaceous perennials such as Delphinium and Lupinus that require fertile, moisture retentive soil will succumb to the drier summers. Traditional spring flowering bulbs and tuberous plants will be susceptible to wet winters and alpine plants will be harder to grow in the South. Native woods of Quercus, Fagus, Fraxinus, Taxus and Pinus sylvestris will be most at risk. Already some limited die-back in Fagus trees is evident idue to recent droughts. Some new agricultural and horticultural crops might also be introduced into England. Tree species native to the Mediterranean will become more common further North. These include walnut (Juglans spp.) poplar (Populus spp.) sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa). Corsican pine (Pinus nigra maritime) is predicted to become the forester's tree of choice. Gardeners will be able to grow fruit species such grapevines, pomegranates, kiwi, loquats, citrus, apricots, nectarines and figs and a wider range of palm trees. It will be possible to grow Olive trees in some locations and cultivars of Bougainvillea x buttiana will thrive outdoors. The climatic change will not replicate the Mediterranean climate; light levels will remain lower and the survival of some Mediterranean species will be compromised by increased winter rainfall and water-logging. These changes will have far-reaching effects not only on garden design and gardening but also on the planting and maintenance of historic gardens of England. Furthermore, warmer temperatures will bring new pest and disease problems. For further information contact: The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, E-mail: Hadley@metoffice.gov.uk, www.metoffice.gov.uk |
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